Spatiotemporal Patterns of Vegetation Greenness Dynamics Across India (2001-2023): A Harmonic Analysis of MODIS NDVI Time Series
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64229/7j1ysx89Keywords:
Vegetation dynamics, Harmonic analysis, Normalized difference vegetation index, Seasonal greenness, Remote sensing, Ecosystem change, IndiaAbstract
Vegetation greenness dynamics serve as sensitive indicators of ecosystem health and environmental change. This study employs harmonic regression analysis of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series to detect and quantify changes in seasonal vegetation patterns across India over two decades (2001-2023). Two periods early (2001-2011) and recent (2013-2023) were compared across 36 states and 11 biome types using three harmonic parameters: mean greenness, seasonality amplitude, and peak timing phase. Analysis of 10.2 million valid pixels at 500 m resolution reveals a decline in mean NDVI of 0.028 (Cohen's d = 0.18), with 57.6% of vegetated pixels showing reduced greenness. Mann-Kendall trend analysis confirmed this pattern with 91.7% method concordance. At the state level, 75% of administrative units showed declining greenness, with northeastern states experiencing the most severe reductions (0.13-0.24 NDVI units). EVI validation in high-biomass regions confirmed that declines persist across both indices (r = 0.874), indicating that NDVI saturation effects are modest (~10%) and do not alter the primary findings. Among biomes, mangroves exhibited the greatest loss (−0.115), while deserts and xeric shrublands showed marginal increases (+0.027). Land cover stratification revealed forests experienced the strongest decline (−0.052) whereas croplands showed modest increases (+0.011), supporting land use change as a primary driver. Climate correlations at the state level identified vapor pressure deficit change (r = −0.512, p = 0.002) and precipitation change (r = 0.449, p = 0.006) as significant predictors, and a strong inverse relationship between baseline vegetation density and subsequent change (r = −0.550, p < 0.001) indicates that well-vegetated areas are disproportionately degrading. This Google Earth Engine–based harmonic framework provides a reproducible approach for continental-scale vegetation monitoring and ecosystem assessment.
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